Will Bitcoin stay above $ 20,000?
Looking at the quotations of the oldest virtual currency, we notice that its rate has been maintained for almost a month in a horizontal trend (in consolidation) between the support of $19,000 and the resistance in the region of $22,000.
Because Bitcoin rebounded a few days ago from the upper limit of this system, we could expect a continuation of declines towards $19,000 soon.
It is noteworthy that consolidations are corrective formations, which means that the market is more likely to break out of these systems in the direction consistent with the previous move.
Considering that the previous impulse was downward, there is a statistically higher probability that the BTC rate will break the bottom; i.e. it will drop below $19,000, which in turn could signal a potential for further drops to the next support area, which is located in the region of $12,000.
A situation from May earlier this year can serve as an example confirming the thesis described above. After a dynamic decline, Bitcoin stuck for a month from consolidation and broke from it, i.e. in the direction consistent with the previous impulse.
It should be mentioned, however, that no rule determines the moment of breaking out of consolidation. So it may happen that the BTC price will drop below the support of $19,000 already during its next test, or it will remain within this consolidation for some time.
What will happen on the market on July 13 this year may be significant. On this day, we will learn the latest report on consumer inflation in the United States. A further increase in the CPI index could naturally support the decision of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations (FOMC) on another significant interest rate hike, and this would put downward pressure on the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
The factor supporting such a decision by the Federal Reserve may be the report on the US labour market published last Friday. It shows that in June this year, the American economy created as many as 372,000 new jobs, which exceeded economists’ expectations, expecting 268,000.
So we can assume that the Fed doesn’t have to worry about the economy’s health now and can entirely focus on fighting inflation.
Reuters economists believe the Federal Reserve would make five more increases in interest rates in this cycle. It would raise the federal funds’ rates by 75 basis points in July, half a percentage point in September, and will return to increases by a quarter of a percentage point earliest in November.
According to experts, the Fed will stop the increases in the second and third quarters of 2023 and then cut rates by 25 basis points in the last quarter of next year.
Another noteworthy event may also be the payment of funds to the creditors of Mt. Gox. Recall that the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 lost around 850,000 bitcoins, of which only 150,000 were later recovered. Recently, there have been reports that creditors can count on recovering at least some of their funds.
It is said that creditors may receive 150,000 BTC soon. This information was confirmed in the correspondence of July 6 by attorney Nobuaki Kobayashi, a trustee in the rehabilitation process of Mt. Gox. He indicated that they “are preparing to make repayments.”
The event was long-awaited, and investors were concerned about its impact on the market. The price of Bitcoin at the time of the collapse of the stock exchange was a fraction of the current level, which leads to suspicions that creditors might want to sell large amounts of BTC on the market immediately, thus contributing to another collapse of the cryptocurrency market.
The following statistics also speak for the continuation of the downward movement in Bitcoin quotations:
• In 2011, after the so-called first burst of the bubble, BTC fell by almost 94%
• In 2013, when the second bubble burst, the decline amounted to over 83%.
• In 2014, when the third bubble burst, Bitcoin fell by almost 93%.
• In 2017, when the fourth bubble burst, the decline amounted to almost 84%.
So it turns out the current decline of 74% since the November peaks has not even matched the previous sell-offs observed over the years on the quotations of the oldest virtual currency.
If Bitcoin, however, slipped to another support located around $12,000, then the depreciation range observed since November would exceed 82%
Looking at the Ethereum quotes, we notice that the price of this cryptocurrency has also been in the horizontal trend for almost a month. In this case, the scope of this consolidation is determined by the zone between the support of $1,000 and the resistance in the region of $1,250.
It is worth noting that during the last test, the upper limit of this system also coincided with the downward trend line marking the lower boundary of the previous downward channel and with the measurement of 38.2% Fibonacci retracements from an earlier downward impulse.
It also caused a supply reaction there to reappear last Friday.
If only the declines occurring since then continue, the ETH rate could return to around $1000. However, before the current consolidation, the market had experienced quite a drop. Statistically, there is a greater probability that Ethereum will break the bottom, which could drive another downward impulse.
The potential for further depreciation could be around $800, or even $350 where a technical support area is located.
The range of depreciation is therefore considerable, although taking into account the potential extent of Bitcoin’s decline and the strong positive correlation between the two cryptocurrencies, it seems realistic to be achieved in the next few months.
Looking at the Cardano (ADA) quotes, we notice it is stuck in consolidation, within which another consolidation has appeared. But let’s start from the beginning.
What makes Cardano different from other crypto is that Cardano has been in a downward trend since the beginning of September last year and not, like most cryptocurrency projects, from mid-November.
This sale caused the ADA rate to drop by more than 87%, falling from $3.10 below $0.39.
Although in mid-May this year, there was a demand reaction that started a rebound, later increases turned out to be only temporary. This fact also made Cardano stall in a consolidation between support at $0.45 and resistance in the region of $0.65.
It is noteworthy that within this consolidation, another — smaller one has emerged recently. It is between the support of $0.45 and the resistance in the region of $0.55.
So one can see that both consolidations have two common features. They share the same lower bound — support of $0.45 — and the fact that both are corrective patterns after previous declines.
This fact makes it statistically more likely that the market will break down, which could drive a further sell-off towards $0.40, $0.30, $0.25, or even further to $0.19. It is where the following levels of support are located.
Looking at Solana’s quotations, it is worth noting that the price of this cryptocurrency has recently increased to the area of previously defeated support (now resistance) in the region of $41. Considering the relatively low dynamics of these increases, it may be only a form of another correction in a downward trend, increasing the probability of a return to the downward path.
So if the SOL price slips below the currently tested line of the local uptrend, the price of this cryptocurrency could then move toward $22. There is another significant level of support where a more considerable demand pressure could arise.
Avalanche’s quotes returned to the area of the recently defeated support (now resistance) of $21.50. Considering that this zone coincides with the measurement of 50% Fibonacci retracements, it should not be surprising that a supply reaction has already appeared in its region.
If only the declines that started on Friday continue, the AVAX rate could return to around $13.50. A permanent defeat of this support would, in turn, open the door to further sell-off towards $9.50.
Polkadot’s quotes have fallen by more than 88% since November. This sell-off stopped at around $6.50 tech support, the lowest level since December 2020.
It is worth noting, however, that the demand response that appeared around this level is relatively modest, which may indicate that the consolidation between the support of $6.50 and the resistance in the region of $8.50, which has been observed for a month, will turn out to be only another correction in the downtrend.
If that happens and the DOT price slides below the $6.50 support, it could drop to around $4.50 or even $3.50.
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